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Use math to predict baseball games
Bukiet Sees Subway Series a Distinct Possibility in 2007

NEWARK, Mar. 29, 2007. Press Release: New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT)


The New York Mets should expect to win about 90 games in 2007 and the Yankees a whopping 110 games to lead their divisions, said Bruce Bukiet, PhD, an associate professor of mathematical sciences at New Jersey Institute of Technology (NJIT). Bukiet, who is also an associate dean of NJIT’s College of Science and Liberal Arts offers the expectations for the number of games each major league baseball team should win based on his mathematical model, developed in 2000.

The other division winners should be the Cleveland Indians in the American League (AL) Central Division, and Los Angeles Angels in the West. In the National League (NL), the San Diego Padres should win in the West, while the Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals will compete for the Central Division title in a very close race. The wildcard teams in the NL should be the Phillies, while in the AL, the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Twins will vie for that title.

The expected wins for each team are:

AL East:

AL Central:

AL West:

NL East:

NL Central:

NL West:

Yankees – 110; Blue Jays – 87; Red Sox – 87; Orioles – 75; Devil Rays 55;

Indians – 92; Twins – 88; Tigers – 84; White Sox – 82; Royals 58;

Angels – 94; A’s – 80; Rangers – 77; Mariners – 74;

Mets – 90; Phillies – 88; Braves – 81; Marlins – 77; Nationals – 73;

Astros – 87; Cardinals – 86; Cubs – 82; Braves – 81; Reds – 71; Pirates – 66;

Padres – 90; Dodgers – 85; Diamondbacks – 78; Giants – 78; Rockies - 76.


"These results offer a guide as to how teams ought to perform during the season. But unknowns continue to exist, especially those dealing with trades, injuries and rookies’ performances,” said Bukiet, who worked with NJIT Mathematical Sciences undergraduate William Michael Hourican on these computations.

Operations Research published Bukiet’s mathematical model on which his predictions are based. His model computes the probability of a team winning a game against another team with given hitters, bench, starting pitcher, relievers and home field advantage. Bukiet has appeared on CNN Headline News, the Jerusalem Post and Fox Radio’s Roger Hedgecock Show, KOGO, San Diego and others. Interview Bukiet in person at 501 Cullimore Hall, by telephone (973-596-8392) or email bukiet@m.njit.edu .

Bukiet, an avid Mets fan, has used this mathematical model to determine whether it is worthwhile to wager on games during the baseball season. His picks are posted (for academic purposes only) on his website (www.egrandslam.com). These picks have produced positive results for five of the six years he has posted them.

Bukiet’s main areas of research have involved mathematical modeling of physical phenomena, including detonation waves, healing of wounds, and dynamics of human balance. He has also applied mathematical modeling to sports and gambling, in particular for understanding baseball and cricket. He is currently working on National Science Foundation projects to train math and science teachers for high-need schools and to bring computational research projects into Newark High Schools. Bukiet received the NJIT Excellence in Teaching Award in 2006 for Outstanding Work. Bukiet received his PhD in mathematics from the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, New York University.


New Jersey Institute of Technology, New Jersey's science and technology university, enrolls more than 8,000 students in bachelor's, master's and doctoral degrees in nearly 100 degree programs offered by six colleges: Newark College of Engineering, New Jersey School of Architecture, College of Science and Liberal Arts, School of Management, Albert Dorman Honors College, and College of Computing Sciences. NJIT is renowned for expertise in architecture, applied mathematics, wireless communications and networking, solar physics, advanced engineered particulate materials, nanotechnology, neural engineering, and eLearning. NJIT: The Edge in Knowledge.

 

Use math to predict baseball games

Friday, 06 April 2007. Source: iTWire by William Atkins


The use of mathematics may not seem very interesting to the average person, but U.S. math professor, and N.Y. Mets fan, Bruce Bukiet can consistently beat sports experts when using his copyrighted “Markov Chain” method.

For the 2007 major league baseball season, Bukiet is predicting that the New York Yankees will be the winningest team with 110 victories out of 162 games.

Bukiet, who teaches at New Jersey Institute of Technology (Newark), uses a mathematical model that determines the likelihood of victory or defeat on a particular day based on the two teams’ batting orders of starters (along with five reserves) and starting pitcher (and six relievers). His model predicts the outcome of individual games based on how well each player is likely to perform against each pitcher. Bukiet also predicts outcomes for the whole baseball season.

The model is called the “Markov Chain”. It is a series of states within a system (in this case Major League Baseball) that relies on a finite number of possible situations in any baseball game. Each time the method makes a prediction a change of state has been made, what is called a transition. A past state carries no information about future states, only information in the current state is used to predict the future. When Bukiet makes his predictions for the 2007 he will input statistics into his Markov mathematical model from the past three years: 2004, 2005, and 2006.
 

Mathematician: Yankees Will Dominate Baseball This Year

April 4, 2007. Source: LiveScience by Andrea Thompson, Staff Writer


The New York Yankees will win a whopping 110 games this season, more than any other major league team, according to a mathematician who applies math to real-life situations.

The projection comes from a model that Bruce Bukiet of the New Jersey Institute of Technology developed and has used and updated for the past six years to predict how many games each team will win during the 162-game season.

So far, Bukiet is on track. The Yankees won their season opener against the Tampa Bay Devil Rays on Monday.

 


 

 

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Last updated: May 13, 2007